Antitrust Moves and Energy Trends: A Weekly Recap
In the ever-evolving landscape of the electricity market, recent developments have caught the attention of industry experts and stakeholders alike. The Department of Justice (DOJ) has reaffirmed its commitment to antitrust enforcement, while the energy sector grapples with the nuances of growth projections. Here’s a closer look at the latest numbers that have made waves this week.
A Shift in Antitrust Strategy
14 Years
It’s been over a decade since the DOJ’s antitrust division filed a consent decree in an electricity merger, a streak that ended recently with an important agreement involving Constellation Energy. As part of its $26.6 billion acquisition of Calpine, the largest wholesale power provider in the U.S., Constellation must divest six power plants and a minority stake in another. This action signals the DOJ’s increasing use of antitrust laws as a means to regulate power markets, particularly as consumer electricity prices and demand experience upward pressure.
Generation Growth: A Downward Revision
1.7%
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised its forecast for electricity generation growth in 2026, projecting a modest increase of 1.7%. This adjustment marks a decrease from the previously predicted 3%, reflecting the dynamic shifts in electricity demand and the challenges presented by large-scale load demands, especially in Texas. This state has been a key player in driving overall demand forecasts, and its updated expectations are influential in shaping national trends. The EIA has notably lowered its growth estimates for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), shifting from an anticipated 15.7% growth in 2026 to just 9.6%.
The Gas Turbine Rush
80 GW
In a related sector, the race for gas turbines continues to heat up, with GE Vernova projecting a backlog of 80 gigawatts (GW) by year’s end. The company’s CEO, Scott Strazik, indicated that gas turbine reservations could be sold out through 2030, underscoring robust demand and promising discussions with hyperscalers that may lead to significant volume agreements extending into 2035. This surge in interest highlights a sustained reliance on gas-powered generation amid transitions in the energy market.
Corporate Clean Energy Procurement
20.4 GW
In the realm of clean energy, corporate buyers are shaking things up. According to the Clean Energy Buyers Association (CEBA), there have been contracts for 20.4 GW of “clean” energy in the first three quarters of 2025. CEBA’s CEO, Rich Powell, expressed optimism about achieving a record year of carbon emissions-free electricity purchases, despite recent cuts to clean energy tax credits. A notable trend is the growing procurement of “clean firm” resources capable of providing consistent power on demand, which include geothermal, hydroelectric, nuclear, and long-duration energy storage solutions.
Expansion of Renewable Energy Plans
5.5 GW
Finally, the New York Power Authority has embraced a significant update to its renewable energy strategy, approving an additional 5.5 GW of renewable capacity. This is a notable increase from the initial plan’s target of 3 GW, with the updated plan now including a mix of solar and wind energy sources. Although this expansion reflects a more robust commitment to renewable energy, it also points to the challenges and market changes that complicate the transition away from fossil fuels.
The interplay between antitrust enforcement, generation growth, and renewable energy expansion encapsulates a crucial period of transformation within the energy sector. As the landscape continues to develop, these trends will be pivotal in shaping the future of electricity supply and consumption in the United States.