Dive Brief:
Massachusetts, New England’s most populous state, is at the forefront of a significant energy transition. A recent report prepared by Synapse Energy Economics for the Massachusetts Clean Peak Coalition argues that the state could fully decarbonize its peak generation by 2050. This shift would be achieved at a lower cost than continuing to rely on fossil-fuel peaker plants. The research highlights that a diverse portfolio of clean energy resources, encompassing demand-side solutions, energy storage, and wind generation, could provide a more cost-effective response to the state’s energy needs than fossil alternatives.
The findings indicate that a least-cost approach to clean peaking resources would significantly lower expenses when environmental and public health factors are taken into account. It turns out that moving away from combustion-based options—such as natural gas, hydrogen, and renewable natural gas—could save the state money in the long run.
However, not everyone is convinced by these conclusions. Dan Dolan, president of the New England Power Generators Association, expressed skepticism regarding the feasibility of these clean energy proposals, especially given the region’s recent experience with extreme winter weather. He cautions that while clean energy remains vital, it may not be sufficient during periods of severe demand.
Dive Insight:
A pivotal 2021 state law mandates Massachusetts to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, urging a comprehensive transformation in its power sector. As of 2023, natural gas represented a staggering 84% of the electricity generated in the state, with renewables contributing a mere 15%. The Clean Energy Group identifies several gigawatts of generation capacity marked as “peaking.” Notably, some plants, like the 386-MW Bellingham facility near Worcester, could switch to higher-emitting fuel oil during gas supply shortages, especially in winter months.
Currently, Massachusetts is making strides in energy transition. The state is expanding its solar, battery storage, and offshore wind capacities while simultaneously decommissioning aging fossil-fuel peaker plants. A notable example is the 45-MW West Springfield Generating Station, which transitioned from a coal and natural gas plant to a solar farm in 2022. Plans for a utility-scale battery installation at this site could materialize as soon as next year.
Despite these advancements, the journey toward fully decarbonizing Massachusetts’ electricity system presents challenges over the forthcoming 25 years. Pressing state policies and rising fuel costs compel both residential and commercial heating customers to electrify. As more residents adopt electric vehicles, Massachusetts anticipates a significant shift from a summer-peaking to a winter-peaking energy system in the mid-2030s. This is a concern as winter peaks are less suited for intermittent solar generation.
Compounding these challenges, the current design of ISO New England’s forward capacity market tends to favor fossil-fuel generators over renewable resources. The capacity framework, which incentivizes thermal resources, often discourages the retirement of peaker plants. Although ISO New England has plans to implement a “prompt” capacity auction model by June 2028, questions remain about its impact on the necessary decarbonization efforts.
The coalition’s findings suggest that a balanced peak generation portfolio—including 6.4 GW of onshore and offshore wind, 6.9 GW of energy storage, and 4.2 GW of demand response—could effectively meet winter peak demands. Importantly, about two-thirds of this energy storage capacity needs to be resilient enough to withstand extended cold weather periods with minimal renewable generation.
To transition effectively towards this clean energy landscape, Massachusetts regulators and policymakers must intensify their efforts. This includes prioritizing energy efficiency and demand response incentives, advancing commercial development of longer-duration energy storage solutions, and judiciously addressing community concerns related to wind siting. The integration of external factors—such as climate impact and public health concerns—into resource evaluations is critical.
The Massachusetts Energy Transformation Advisory Board is currently exploring options that present “alternatives” to fossil peakers and combined heat and power plants while taking into account the climate impacts of these facilities. With electrification on the rise, there are concerns that reliance on peaker plants could stubbornly persist without adequate mitigation strategies.
Dolan from NEPGA emphasizes the complexities ahead, noting that with increasing electrification and demand, the focus must shift from simply replacing fossil generators to a broader energy addition approach. The winter of 2023 starkly demonstrated this need, as the energy grid relied heavily on the versatile generation fleet, even resorting to often-unutilized oil generation to meet demands.