The Urgent Challenge of Sustainable Biogenic CO₂ in Europe’s Decarbonization Efforts

A recent study from Transport & Environment (T&E), a prominent European NGO focusing on clean transport, has highlighted a significant roadblock in Europe’s decarbonization strategy: the glaring shortage of genuinely sustainable biogenic CO₂. While the continent currently produces 92 million tons of biogenic CO₂ annually that meets T&E’s strict sustainability criteria, this amount will fall woefully short as industries increase their production of e-fuels and implement carbon-removal technologies.

Defining Sustainable Biogenic CO₂

T&E’s estimate of 92 million tons per year hinges on a narrow definition of what counts as sustainable biogenic CO₂. This definition only recognizes three types of facilities:

• Pulp and Paper Mills
• Energy-from-Waste Plants
• Biogas Upgrading Facilities

This limited scope excludes many traditional biogenic CO₂ sources, such as bioethanol fermentation and biomass power plants, because they rely on feedstocks that T&E deems unsustainable. As a result, many potential producers of biogenic CO₂ are left out of the equation.

The Supply-Demand Mismatch

With such a limited supply of sustainable biogenic CO₂, T&E projects that Europe can only support up to 11.5 million tons of e-Sustainable Aviation Fuel (e-SAF) production per year. Although this figure sounds substantial, it accounts for less than 25% of the current demand for jet fuel across the EU.

The challenge extends beyond aviation. The report anticipates that carbon dioxide removal (CDR) initiatives, especially methods like bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), will also spike demand for biogenic CO₂. By 2050, the combined demand from e-fuels and CDR could range from 140 million tons to nearly 400 million tons per year. Under either scenario, Europe’s existing supply of 92 million tons is insufficient, and T&E does not mince words: even conservative estimates show that demand already exceeds supply.

Direct Air Capture: A Long-Term Solution

One potential avenue to alleviate this shortage is direct air capture (DAC), a technology that could theoretically tap into unlimited atmospheric CO₂. However, the reality is that commercial-scale DAC remains years away from being implemented effectively. Developers continue to face challenges transitioning from pilot projects to fully operational facilities, and timelines for deployment are consistently slipping.

In the meantime, biogenic CO₂ remains the only near-term solution, and Europe simply does not have enough of it to meet its rapidly growing needs.

Emerging EU Policies

Policy implications are starting to make waves in Brussels. The European Commission has acknowledged the situation in its latest Bioeconomy Strategy, indicating plans to release rules for biogenic carbon capture and storage in the upcoming year. The EU’s revised emissions trading scheme (ETS) aims to explore pathways for recognizing biogenic carbon removals under the Carbon Removal and Carbon Farming Certification Framework (CRCF). Concurrently, the Innovation Fund will continue funding Bio-CCUS (carbon capture, utilization, and storage) projects that can scale effectively.

While these policy frameworks could unlock necessary infrastructure investments, they do not address the basic issue of supply scarcity.

Prioritizing Biogenic CO₂ for e-Fuels

Given the limited availability of biogenic CO₂, T&E argues that it should be prioritized for e-fuel production, particularly in sectors like aviation and maritime transportation that are hard to decarbonize. However, mere prioritization won’t suffice; effective transport systems must also be established to move CO₂ from production to utilization sites.

To this end, T&E evaluates four transportation options for CO₂:

1. Pipelines: The Top Choice

Pipelines provide the most efficient and cost-effective means for transporting large volumes of CO₂. However, their geographic limitations mean that plans primarily focus on the North Sea, leaving several significant biogenic CO₂ sources in regions such as Finland, Sweden, Slovakia, and Central/Eastern Europe disconnected.

2. Rail: A Balanced Option

Rail transportation is particularly well-suited for medium-scale e-fuel plants that require around 300,000 tons of CO₂ yearly over distances of approximately 300 kilometers. The report positions rail transport as a practical, cost-effective choice for distributed CO₂ sources.

3. Trucking: Good for Early Adaptation

For early-stage, smaller volumes, trucking remains a viable option. High-purity CO₂ streams, such as those generated by biogas plants, can be transported by truck in a bridge capacity while market demand grows.

4. Shipping: Flexibility for Coastal Regions

In coastal clusters of CO₂ producers and users, shipping offers flexibility and the capability for long-distance transport, allowing for greater adaptability in meeting supply demands.

The Strategic Imperative Ahead

As Europe continues on its decarbonization journey, biogenic CO₂ emerges as a crucial input for new-generation fuels and carbon-removal initiatives. However, T&E’s analysis highlights a troubling reality: there is simply not enough sustainable biogenic CO₂ to support anticipated future needs. Absent a strategic expansion of infrastructure, a consistent tightening of sustainability definitions, and a significant boost in investments toward technologies like DAC, Europe risks reaching a hard supply limit, potentially stalling its climate goals.