The short answer is that Iran’s power system is large, heavily dependent on thermal generation, and widely dispersed – making it difficult to disable through limited military strikes.
A System Built on Thermal Power
According to Iran’s Ministry of Energy, the country boasts approximately 40.6 million electricity subscribers, with 32.3 million being residential users. Despite these figures suggesting a diverse energy landscape, hydroelectric power accounts for just about 13.4% of Iran’s total capacity, a number that is somewhat misleading. The actual contribution of hydroelectric facilities is less than 5%, primarily due to suboptimal reservoir conditions.
Instead, Iran relies overwhelmingly on thermal power plants, which generate more than 95% of the country’s electricity. There are around 130 thermal plants spread across the nation, collectively offering an impressive capacity of 78,000 megawatts. Notably, about 20 of these facilities exceed 1,000 megawatts in capacity, with three plants surpassing the 2,000 megawatts mark.
Where the Power is Generated
The largest facility in Iran, the Damavand power plant – also known as the Pakdasht plant – boasts a formidable capacity of about 2,900 megawatts. Situated approximately 50 kilometers southeast of Tehran, it sprawls across about 200 hectares. The construction of this facility represented a significant investment, costing nearly 2 billion euros.
Another major player, the Neka (Behshahr) power plant, is also around 200 hectares and is located along the picturesque Caspian Sea in Mazandaran province, providing a capacity of about 2,200 megawatts.
Meanwhile, the Rajaei power plant, located along the Karaj-Qazvin road, produces approximately 2,000 megawatts and extends over about 350 hectares. In the vicinity of Tehran, five major plants—Damavand, Rajaei, Montazer Ghaem, Roudshour (Rudshur), and Mofatteh—are vital to the region’s electricity supply.
In the capital itself, smaller facilities such as Besat, Rey, Tarasht, and Parand contribute at much lower capacities. Among them, Parand is the largest, generating about 950 megawatts, while Besat and Tarasht offer around 250 megawatts and 50 megawatts, respectively.
Hard Targets, Limited Impact
When considering military strikes, large power plants present significant challenges. A facility like Damavand, with its multiple cooling towers and expansive layout of 200 hectares—approximately 30 times the size of Tehran’s Azadi Square—would require a broad and well-coordinated attack to effectively disable it.
Even in the case of complete destruction, the implications for the national grid would be surprisingly limited. For instance, the total loss of Damavand would only account for 3.7% of Iran’s overall electricity generation capacity. Importantly, any power loss could potentially be offset by curtailing around 400 megawatts of electricity exports.
A Decentralized Grid
Another factor complicating targeted attacks on Iran’s electricity system is its decentralized nature. Spanning an extensive transmission and sub-transmission network of about 133,000 kilometers, the total length swells to over 1.3 million kilometers when incorporating urban and rural lines.
This vast infrastructure is supported by approximately 857,000 transformers and an estimated 2,000 to 5,000 large and medium substations situated throughout the country. While strikes against substations could lead to temporary, localized outages, replacement and repairs can happen swiftly.
For example, localized electric disruptions in western Tehran and Karaj – likely resulting from explosions at power substations – were resolved quickly after brief outages, showcasing the resilience of the system.
Can Iran Be Plunged Into Darkness?
Given the scale and dispersion of Iran’s power infrastructure, targeting a few plants or facilities is unlikely to result in a nationwide blackout. Even substantial damage could be managed by the extensive network, effectively limiting the consequences to specific areas and for short periods.