Natural gas is set to become a cornerstone of Africa’s energy landscape, promising growth even as the global supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) swells. According to the African Energy Chamber’s 2026 Outlook Report, titled “The State of African Energy,” demand for gas in Africa is projected to increase by a staggering 60% by 2050. Interestingly, gas is the sole fossil fuel expected to see an uptick in its share of primary energy demand on a global scale. As North Africa’s leadership in the gas sector wanes, sub-Saharan Africa is anticipated to spearhead this growth, boasting more than 70% of the continent’s remaining recoverable gas resources.
The transformative potential of gas is twofold: it offers both export revenues and domestic benefits. However, achieving this depends on overcoming significant challenges, such as infrastructure deficits, pricing disputes, and transitioning from associated to non-associated gas resources.
The Next Gas Epicenter
Currently, about two-thirds of Africa’s gas production is concentrated in North Africa, with Algeria, Egypt, and Libya at the forefront. Yet, as projected, this region’s contribution to total production is expected to fall below 40% by 2035 as growth accelerates in sub-Saharan nations. While this region presently accounts for only a third of continental output, it is poised to dominate future capacity expansions.
Nigeria has launched its “Decade of Gas” initiative to develop its considerable gas resources and facilitate a transition to cleaner energy, placing it in a prime position to drive this expansion. Nigeria currently produces over half of the region’s commercial gas, and emerging players like Mozambique, Tanzania, Senegal, and Angola are quickly following suit. Notable projects, such as Mozambique’s Coral Sul and Senegal-Mauritania’s Greater Tortue, have commenced new export opportunities since 2022.
The 2026 Outlook Report forecasts a steady rise in total African gas demand, from approximately 55 billion cubic meters (Bcm) annually in 2020 to over 90 Bcm by 2050, driven mainly by residential, industrial, and power sectors. Sub-Saharan Africa houses over 400 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of recoverable gas, representing 70% of the continent’s total reserves.
Unlike North Africa, where gas is predominantly associated with oil, sub-Saharan Africa’s gas reserves are mainly non-associated or “dry.” Although this type of gas can be more costly per million British thermal unit (MMBtu), its independence from oil pricing constraints offers new pathways for monetization, making it available for a range of domestic and export markets.
Transformative Avenues: Exports and Domestic Industrialization
The development of gas resources can have a transformative effect on economies through two key pathways: exports and in-country value creation.
On the export front, Africa supplied 34.7 million metric tonnes (MMt) of LNG in the previous year, representing 8.5% of global exports. Sub-Saharan Africa’s share surged to 26.9 MMt in 2024, with a hefty portion earmarked for Asia (60%) and Europe (25%). The 2026 Outlook Report anticipates a fourfold increase in sub-Saharan exports by 2050, particularly as new contributors like Tanzania enter the export market.
Given the geographical advantages of west and southwest African LNG producers near both Atlantic and Indian Ocean markets, these regions are well-positioned to adapt to fluctuations in global LNG prices, acting as swing suppliers. Additionally, where gas export projects carry domestic market obligations (DMOs), like in Nigeria or Senegal-Mauritania, rising exports can bolster domestic supply. For instance, Senegal aims to achieve 3 gigawatts (GW) of gas-fired power by 2050, supported by DMOs from major LNG projects.
On the domestic front, gas can significantly benefit producing nations by powering industries, transportation, and households. While only a few sub-Saharan countries currently utilize gas in their power mixes, production has steadily risen over the past decade. Nigeria boasts a gas-fired capacity of 12.6 GW, while countries like Ghana and Mozambique are seeing significant developments at 2.9 GW and 1.1 GW, respectively. Coastal nations, including Senegal and Ghana, employ floating power ships powered by natural gas to meet rising energy demands.
Several nations—including Nigeria, South Africa, Senegal, and Angola—are pursuing ambitions to enhance gas-to-power infrastructures. The report also signals growing demand for gas-derived products like fertilizers and petrochemicals, along with industrial applications, such as in metals processing. For example, Angola’s newly approved National Gas Plan specifically targets these sectors to reduce reliance on imports, whereas Nigeria has initiated a push for compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles through its National Gas Expansion Program.
Challenges to Realizing Africa’s Gas Potential
Although Africa has abundant gas resources, a significant portion remains untapped. The continent ranks second globally, following Russia, in terms of discovered yet undeveloped gas resources. Two prominent examples include the Rovuma basin, holding 129 Tcf off the coast of Mozambique and Tanzania, and the Niger Delta basin, which contains 113 Tcf located along Nigeria’s coast. However, these resources remain largely undeveloped.
Numerous challenges roadblock Africa’s current trajectory and its potential economic transformation through gas development. The 2026 Outlook Report identifies four critical factors: upstream economics, market access and offtake, infrastructure adequacy, and country risk/fiscal terms.
Successful navigation of these factors requires a collaborative effort between governments and regulators to ensure alignment.
Upstream economics: Over 50% of production in sub-Saharan Africa currently consists of associated gas, which is less expensive to produce. This has been crucial for regional expansion, especially in Nigeria and Angola. However, as non-associated gas grows in relevance, this sector will need competitive pricing to attract future investments and infrastructure development.
Market access and offtake: For transparent pricing and reliable long-term demand, achieving success will hinge on long-term contracts with reputable offtakers and predictable consumption patterns, alongside government-backed incentives.
Adequate infrastructure: Efficiently connecting supply hubs to demand centers necessitates investment in LNG facilities and pipelines. The “chicken-and-egg” dilemma arises here: investors demand assured demand to justify investments, while consumer demand typically increases only after infrastructure is established. Thus, governments must create predictable regulatory frameworks to attract investment aligned with national economic and energy goals.
Country risk and fiscal terms: To ensure attractiveness to investors, national governments must skillfully balance royalties, taxation, production sharing terms, and local content requirements. Additionally, political stability is essential to cultivate long-term investor confidence.
Seizing the Surplus
The 2026 Outlook Report positions gas as Africa’s bridge fuel. Its cleaner profile compared to coal and oil, combined with its versatility for power generation and industrial applications, will render it increasingly competitive in the years ahead as global prices decline.
The projected surge in non-associated gas production in sub-Saharan Africa holds the promise of enhanced energy security, substantial export revenues, and the creation of new industrial jobs. To realize this vision, it is crucial to navigate the infrastructure-demand conundrum through well-structured contracts, transparent pricing strategies, and balanced fiscal policies.
If African nations can come together to support upstream scalability, midstream connectivity, and downstream certainty, the gas sector won’t merely expand—it will transform the entire continent for the better, unlocking vast economic potential and empowering communities across Africa.