The long-awaited 2025-2034 Electricity Procurement Business Plan (RUPTL), launched by the Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Ministry on May 26, 2025, signals a shift in the government’s energy priorities—placing greater emphasis on energy security over the green transition. The new RUPTL marks a departure from the previous 2021-2030 RUPTL, which aimed for no new fossil-based capacity additions by 2030. In contrast, the 2025-2034 plan delays the significant ramp-up of renewable energy capacity to the second half of the decade, indicating a slower pace for Indonesia’s energy transition ambitions.
The 2025-2034 RUPTL is derived from the 2025-2060 National Electricity Master Plan (RUKN), released in March 2025. It outlines the state electricity company PLN’s target to add 69.5 gigawatts (GW) of new power generation capacity over the next decade. Notably, of this new capacity, 16.6 GW (24 percent) will come from non-renewable sources, 10.3 GW (15 percent) from energy storage, and a considerable 42.5 GW (61 percent) from renewables, which also includes 500 megawatts (MW) of nuclear power.
In the initial 2025-2029 period, the plan allocates 27.9 GW of new capacity, with non-renewables making up 12.7 GW (45 percent) and renewables at 12.2 GW (44 percent). However, the phase from 2030 to 2034 indicates a significant shift; the share of non-renewables is projected to decrease to 3.9 GW (10 percent), while renewables are expected to soar to 30.4 GW (73 percent). This growth indicates a future commitment to renewable energy despite the immediate focus on energy security.
This strategy starkly contrasts with the previous 2021-2030 RUPTL, designed to align with Indonesia’s emissions reduction commitments and aimed for a net-zero target by 2060. The earlier plan sought to add 40.6 GW of new capacity, with a substantial 51.6 percent (around 20.92 GW) from renewable sources. Additionally, it aimed to halt the construction of new coal-fired power plants by 2027 and projected a reduced addition of gas-fired power plants compared to the current plan.
Minister Bahlil Lahadalia has pointed out that realizing the RUPTL’s ambitious targets could attract nearly Rp2.97 quadrillion in investments, with Rp2.13 quadrillion earmarked for power plants, Rp565.3 trillion for transmission infrastructure, and Rp268.4 trillion for related sectors. Furthermore, independent power producers (IPPs) are expected to contribute approximately 73 percent (about Rp1.6 quadrillion) of the total power plant investments. This new RUPTL is also anticipated to create around 836,000 jobs, with a staggering 91 percent (or 791,000) classified as green jobs—indicative of the potential for sustainable employment in the sector, aligning with broader economic goals.
Despite this optimistic outlook, experts have raised significant concerns that the new RUPTL contradicts existing policy frameworks and threatens Indonesia’s international commitments. The inclusion of new fossil fuel power plants throughout the 2025-2034 period raises red flags, as it seems to violate Presidential Regulation No. 112/2022, which prohibits the construction of new coal-fired power plants after 2030. Moreover, the ongoing reliance on non-renewable capacity could complicate Indonesia’s ability to fulfill commitments made by President Prabowo Subianto at the 2024 G20 Rio de Janeiro Summit, particularly the pledged phase-out of fossil fuel power plants by 2040.
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Experts remain skeptical about the RUPTL’s ambitious target for renewable development in the 2030-2034 period. They argue that the proposed plans may be overly costly, shifting the implementation burden to the next administration. This concern raises doubts about Indonesia’s capability to achieve its energy transition goals and manage emissions effectively while limiting power production from non-renewable sources. Furthermore, if the ambitious power generation targets are achieved but the anticipated 8 percent economic growth fails to materialize, Indonesia may risk an electricity surplus, which could further strain the power sector and foster inefficiencies.