E3S: Powering the Future of Energy

The inaugural Energy, Economics, and Evaluation Symposium (E3S) took place on January 14, 2026, at the Dallas Federal Reserve’s Houston Branch, drawing nearly 150 participants, including industry leaders, policymakers, economists, and students. The event, themed “Powering the Energy Future,” aimed to address the critical yet often overlooked factors affecting today’s energy landscape, emphasizing that the dynamics shaping energy outcomes extend well beyond mere commodity prices.

Organizers and Collaborators

E3S was orchestrated by the SPE Asset Management Technical Section and co-hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and the United States Association for Energy Economics. This collaborative effort underscored a collective commitment to exploring the pressing realities of the energy sector.

From Price Signals to Constraint Management

Historically, investment decisions in the energy sector heavily relied on oil and gas price expectations. While price remains an important factor, E3S highlighted a shift towards managing a more intricate set of constraints. Capital is accessible, but often under different terms than in the past. Similarly, natural resources may exist, but their development is often hampered by policy and regulatory pressures as well as time constraints. Demand for energy may increase, yet infrastructure may struggle to keep pace.

Insights from the Dallas Fed

The symposium kicked off with a panel discussion featuring representatives from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, which underscored the importance of real-time industry engagement. They pointed out that while traditional datasets continue to offer valuable insights, they often lag behind current market realities and expectations. In a rapidly evolving energy landscape, firms frequently adjust budgeting and capital programs in ways that official data may not yet capture.

Dallas Fed surveys serve as vital barometers for industry sentiment, yielding forward-looking insights on budgeted oil prices, anticipated capital expenditure, and hiring trends. However, panelists stressed that the effectiveness of these surveys is contingent upon candid responses—overly optimism or pessimism can skew important signals that influence decision-making.

The discussion also brought attention to the role of NYMEX strip pricing, which, though not directly indicative of operator activities, heavily influences lender decisions. A deviation from these assumptions often leads to a heightened level of scrutiny for proposed projects.

Resilience Amid Uncertainty

The Chief Economist Panel pivoted the conversation from short-term forecasts to long-term resilience. Instead of following a singular narrative, panelists discussed the variable shape of demand and identified crucial milestones that could influence trajectories over the next five years. They expressed that near-term narratives predicting demand collapse oversimplify a multifaceted reality.

Investments must remain robust under stress conditions, which was summarized by a discussion on breakevens, durable margins, and operational flexibility. Expected scenarios included oil prices possibly dropping to $35/bbl, highlighting the need for contingency planning.

Natural Gas and Nuclear Energy

While AI-driven energy demand is recognized as significant, it remains bounded by real-world limitations such as grid capacity, labor availability, and site challenges. Natural gas emerged as a viable short-term bridge fuel, whereas nuclear power was positioned as an essential long-term solution for consistent, clean baseload energy.

Lower 48 Supply Dynamics

One of the most engaging discussions revolved around productivity gains in the Lower 48 states, where U.S. oil production has surpassed previous peaks, thanks in large part to innovations in drilling and completion techniques. However, the symposium made it clear that increased productivity does not eliminate other systemic constraints.

Oilfield service companies are now cautious about maintaining margin discipline, creating price ceilings that restrict supply flexibility. Additionally, the availability of infrastructure, especially for natural gas takeaway, continues to shape production capabilities and regional pricing dynamics.

This shift in perspective underscores a critical evaluation: type curves can no longer be viewed in isolation. They must be analyzed together with cost curves and the feasibility of execution, reinforcing that supply responses depend on a wider array of factors, beyond just price and geology.

Policy, Energy Literacy, and Strategic Capacity

Discussions at E3S also highlighted the increasing importance of energy literacy within policy frameworks. Energy availability remains crucial for global development, and achieving a balance between affordability, reliability, and sustainability is paramount.

In terms of policy, the conversation steered toward recognizing that energy dominance involves more than production volumes. Real strategic leverage comes from the capacity to respond to disruptions, as well as the intricacies of supply chains and critical minerals processing, which can significantly influence project timelines and economics.

Electricity as a Key Constraint

Electricity availability emerged as a common thread throughout the symposium. Texas, in particular, was recognized as a burgeoning hub for data center growth. Yet, uncertainty regarding load trajectories persisted. Rising electricity demands are not solely driven by AI; factors including population growth and LNG operations also contribute significantly.

Panelists argued that execution capacity—not merely theoretical demand—is now the real constraint facing the energy sector. Factors such as labor availability, turbine manufacturing capabilities, transmission infrastructure development, and community acceptance play substantial roles in how swiftly generation capacities can expand.

Decision-Relevant Insights

Across numerous sessions, E3S effectively translated broad macroeconomic narratives into actionable insights for decision-makers. Factors such as credit assumptions, permitting timelines, infrastructure limitations, and supply chain viability now play a pivotal role in shaping both valuation ranges and risk premiums, paralleling the influence of price expectations.

While the importance of prices has not diminished, they now exist within an increasingly narrow set of constraints. For asset managers, policymakers, and evaluators, comprehending and modeling these constraints is vital for making resilient decisions.

EnergyThon: Molecule to Megawatt

The event concluded with an engaging student business case competition dubbed EnergyThon, which centered on a gas-to-data-center concept. Teams from various universities approached the “Molecule to Megawatt” challenge by crafting techno-economic models aimed at powering next-generation AI data centers. The competition featured a Shark Tank-style pitch event, highlighting innovative ideas from the next generation of energy professionals.

E3S illuminated the multifaceted challenges and opportunities within the energy sector, reinforcing the significance of adapting to an evolving landscape that transcends traditional paradigms.